For decades, Lagos has been Nigeria’s unrivalled economic capital, its skyline, and ports symbolizing prosperity and ambition. But new data suggests that Kano, the commercial hub of Northern Nigeria, is mounting a quiet but striking challenge. The numbers hint at a shift in the country’s economic geography: Lagos’ dominance remains formidable, but Kano’s acceleration deserves close attention.
According to official figures, Lagos State’s nominal GDP grew from ₦30 trillion in 2022 to ₦33.05 trillion in 2023, a respectable 10% expansion. By contrast, Kano State surged from ₦12.05 trillion to ₦15.13 trillion in the same period, an astonishing 25% leap. On raw size, Lagos’ economy is still more than twice that of Kano. But growth rates matter, and Kano’s momentum suggests it is no longer just a northern commercial centre, but an emerging national competitor.
The drivers of Kano’s expansion lie in the fundamentals. Agriculture, both crops and livestock, anchors the state’s economy. Kano posted Nigeria’s highest livestock production value in 2023, at over ₦1.73 trillion, outpacing even Kaduna (₦1.27 trillion) and Lagos (₦834 billion). This dominance reflects the state’s deep-rooted trading networks, centuries-old cattle markets, and an agricultural base that feeds industries far beyond its borders. Crops, too, offer unrealized potential: with land capable of producing nearly 90% of northern Nigeria’s staple crops, Kano is positioned to lead in processing, packaging, and agro-industrial exports.
Contrast this with Lagos, whose economy thrives on finance, trade, manufacturing, and services, sectors less vulnerable to climate shocks, and more integrated with global capital flows. Lagos’ position as a port city and financial hub ensures its pre-eminence, but its growth is slowing in relative terms. Rising congestion, overstretched infrastructure, and land scarcity weigh on expansion.
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Kano’s growth, however, is not without fragility. Much of it stems from informal activity, vulnerable to taxation gaps, weak infrastructure, and policy neglect. Processing industries remain underdeveloped, and insecurity across the broader northern corridor threatens supply chains. Without addressing these bottlenecks, Kano’s excellent figures risk sustaining.
Yet the possibilities are tantalizing. Imagine a Kano that processes its livestock into export-grade dairy, leather, and meat products, or one where crop surpluses are transformed into packaged goods for African and Middle Eastern markets With strategic investments in agro-processing, energy, and logistics, coupled with improved governance, Kano could reduce its over-reliance on raw agriculture and unlock an industrial renaissance.
In conclusion, Nigeria’s economic future will not be shaped by Lagos alone. The country’s resilience and growth depend on its ability to nurture multiple engines of prosperity. Kano’s remarkable 25% GDP growth is a signal that northern Nigeria is stirring, with agriculture and trade offering a foundation for industrialization. Lagos remains the giant, but Kano’s trajectory poses an intriguing question: could Nigeria’s economic story in the next decade be as much about the revival of its ancient northern hub as about the continued expansion of its coastal megacity?
If so, the “GDP showdown” is not just a contest between two states but a glimpse of a more balanced, regionally inclusive Nigerian economy.
Dr Tijjani Ahmad, a chartered accountant and academic, wrote from Kano.
